Facilitator: Professor Herbert Huppert (Fellow of the Royal Society)

Gather a sufficiently large crowd and they can accurately estimate the weight of a bull – or so it is said. However, getting a large enough crowd can be cumbersome; and in the consultancy area very expensive. Yet many urgent situations exist where a forward prediction is needed, in the face of significant uncertainty. 

For example: how many police are needed to control a future demonstration of unknown size and violence; where best does one site a potentially dangerous nuclear reactor in a country which might experience an earthquake anywhere within its borders; what is the transmission rate of a potentially new virus between people? 

To answer these questions, and others, one could hire an expert, but s/he may not always be reliable. Instead a team of consultants, or a number of competing teams, could be hired. But their opinions may differ. How does one decide who is most likely to be correct? One could assign their opinions weights. How do you determine the weights? 

The relatively new subject of expert elicitation, which confronts these issues, will be described. Numerous real examples will be presented and discussed. The mathematics behind the concept will be briefly outlined and the psychology of parties involved in the data collection and decision making will be reviewed. 

A questionnaire on Australian matters will be distributed so the potential reliability and assigned weight can be analysed for each member of the audience.

• Register to attend (places are limited - 50 maximum)

Date & Time: Wednesday 10th April @ 1pm

Presenter: Professor Herbert Huppert (UNSW and Cambridge)

Location: Quad Building Room G035