The Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) is a consortium of US National Cancer Institute sponsored investigators who use statistical modeling to improve the understanding of cancer control interventions in prevention, screening and treatment in the US. As part of that aim, they have developed a Smoking History Generator (SHG) that can generate cohorts of in silico individuals reflecting smoking levels and mortality for birth cohorts over the last century. The SHG is then used to assess the impact of smoking and treatment interventions particularly on the burden of lung cancer and its costs. The Cancer Research Division at the NSW Cancer Council is in the process of developing its own SHG to reflect smoking histories and mortality in Australia. This talk will cover some of that process, quantifying Australian smoking levels from various surveys, and how these levels are reflected in lung cancer rates. Some of the background on the spread of tobacco usage through the world and in Australia will also be covered.
John Murray is a Professor of Applied Mathematics at the School of Mathematics and Statistics, UNSW Sydney, and at the Cancer Research Division of the NSW Cancer Council. His interests are mainly in the application of mathematics to medical and health problems. His major focus has been on modelling HIV both in the in vivo setting as well as for epidemiological problems. More recent work at the NSW Cancer Council has been directed towards modeling smoking history in Australia to link these levels to lung cancer mortality prediction.